Page 12 - Film Festival Journal + Review Spring/Summer 2020

The Shape of Things To Come In 2020-21?

The cancellation of SXSW due to the coronavirus epidemic sent shockwaves through the entertain-
ment industry. But in truth it was the culmination of weeks of mounting anxiety — in executive suites and
corporate boardrooms, on studio lots, across television and film sets, at red-carpet premieres and in multi-
plexes and concert venues — that has left Hollywood fearfully staring into an abyss of uncertainty.
No conversation, it seems, is complete without at least some reference to a public health crisis so wide-
spread and world-altering that it could have been the plot of a blockbuster thriller. And actually, it was —
2011’s “Contagion,” directed by Steven Soderbergh, became one of the most rented movies on iTunes last
week. But now, it’s all too terribly real, with 4,262 reported deaths worldwide, and 118,583 confirmed cases
— at least, as of press time. Those numbers will have increased by the time this story is published.
Much as the spread of the virus now referred to as COVID-19 has been staggered across the globe,
so has the reaction to it. Parts of Asia have been on lockdown for weeks, Italy recently shut down the entire
nation and several European countries have also seriously considered lockdowns. Despite the cancellation
of major communal events, the U.S. remains largely in a nervous, wait-and-see posture, with everyday
business certainly interrupted but still moving forward.
There was also an ongoing debate about whether or not contracts with insurance companies will
cover the financial toll that delays related to an epidemic like COVID-19 could impose on movies and
shows.
“If the insurance companies take the position that there are no exclusions for communicable diseases, then
globally that will shut down production until this is over,” says Chris Spicer, an attorney with Akin Gump.
If production shuts down or even slows, that will hurt crew members, actors, writers and directors who
exist in a gig economy, where paying the bills is dependent on finding the next show or movie.
The theatrical landscape has been upended by COVID-19. Last week, MGM pushed the release of the
James Bond movie “No Time to Die” — which was counting on the lion’s share of its grosses to come from
foreign territories — from April until November. On March 10, Sony moved “Peter Rabbit 2: The Runa-
way” from the end of the month to August. So far, other tentpole movies are keeping their release dates,
but costly films such as “Black Widow,” “F9” and “Wonder Woman 1984” that depend on healthy interna-
tional box office grosses might reconsider if the situation doesn’t improve in the coming weeks, and there
is no indication it will.
Studios’ inability to release major movies such as “1917” and “Mulan” in China, where theaters
have been closed for two months, has taken a financial toll. Analysts estimate that the movie business at
the time had lost $2.15 billion in box office revenue. When Hollywood releases are allowed back into the
market, they will have to compete with Chinese blockbusters that had their openings delayed, creating a
bottleneck for studio movies looking to attract crowds in the world’s second-largest film market.
“It’s been a bad year for Hollywood in China, and it’s not going to get much better,” says Stanley Rosen, a
USC political science professor and an expert on the China film market.
The domestic marketplace hasn’t suffered the same fate yet. The box office last weekend was down
nearly 50% from the same weekend last year, but that was because Pixar’s “Onward” failed to generate the
same level of excitement as “Captain Marvel” did when it premiered in the year-ago period. “The Invisible
Man” and “Sonic the Hedgehog,” meanwhile, have been major hits despite opening in theaters as updates
on the virus began to dominate cable news chyrons.
“We have worked this with so many different scenarios and variables — it’s anybody’s guess,” says
Jeff Goldstein, president of domestic distribution at Warner Bros. “I was in a movie theater yesterday, and
it didn’t seem to me that attendance was depressed at all. I also went to a restaurant, and it was packed.
But if the news gets worse, that could change on a dime.”

12 FILM FESTIVAL JOURNAL SUMMER 2020