Page 14 - Film Festival Journal + Review Spring/Summer 2020

FILM FESTIVAL JOURNAL + REVIEW

While music fans in the
But the brutal math of viral pandemics (though the CDC
has yet to define the outbreak in such terms) is at once impossible U.S. seemed more concerned with
travel than with avoiding public
to escape and frustratingly tough to nail down for certain. On the
same day of SXSW’s cancellation, biologist Liz Specht posted a gatherings, events that combine the
two have been hit hard. The cancel-
widely read Twitter thread in which she forecast as many as 4 mil-
lion COVID-19 cases in the U.S. by mid-May, and 2 to 6 billion cas- lation of SXSW and Ultra, a Miami
-based dance-music festival, had a
es worldwide by July.
Specht’s calculations, however, appear to be a worst-case brutal impact on the artists and the
communities that host those events.
scenario. “While well-intentioned, these forecasts are still assump-
tions, some of which are based on misleading data,” says Patricia Hamid Bijari, general manager at
the Belmont in Austin, Texas, says
Sung, epidemiologist and manager of infection prevention at the
University of Southern California’s Verdugo Hills Hospital. Sung the venue was booked for all 10 days
of SXSW. “The real losers in this
stresses that businesses should look to the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and local health departments for guidance. aren’t the big companies — it’s the
average local bartender or server,”
The CDC, however, has not yet ventured a concrete prediction for
how bad the virus’ spread in the U.S. could get. As of March 9, he says.
Initially, U.S. events were
the CDC’s coronavirus website stated in carefully vague terms that
“for the majority of people, the immediate risk of being exposed to not being affected, but that has
changed quickly. On March 9, Pearl
the virus that causes COVID-19 is thought to be low.”
Suffice it to say, it’s difficult to fathom just how massive an Jam postponed the first leg of its
North American tour, which was
impact this epidemic will have on the world, especially the enter-
tainment industry, a multibillion-dollar business built on a foun- slated to begin on March 18, and the
Coachella and Stagecoach festivals
dation of public gatherings and routine travel. One thing, at least,
is clear: Should the virus continue to spread on its current trajecto- in Indio, Calif., are moving from
April to October. Overseas, Green
ry, Americans need only look across the Atlantic to Europe to
grasp their immediate future, and across the Pacific to Asia to see Day, Madonna and Khalid have
postponed or canceled concerts in
where things will ultimately lead.
Since news of the outbreak began to emerge out of Wuhan, Asia and Europe.
“When a company is
China, in January, entertainment companies and talent agencies
have started imposing travel restrictions, urging some employees [doing well], nobody cares and no-
body wants to make those painful
in affected areas to work from home, and encouraging staffers to
do more teleconferencing and fewer big in-person meetings. Me- cuts,” says James Angel, professor
of finance at Georgetown Universi-
dia stocks have collectively taken a walloping, sinking in tandem
with the rest of the market over the past few weeks, largely on ty, who says the dynamic changes
“when your back is up against the
coronavirus fears. The dire economic effect of the epidemic is be-
ginning to sink in across the entertainment and media landscape. wall.”
The pressure may not be alleviated
Disney shares have tumbled nearly 23%, while ViacomCBS, al-
ready on a downswing, has fallen more than 51% so far this year. any time soon; hopes that COVID-
19 will be under control in a matter
During previous economic downturns, shared consumption of pop
culture — going to the movies, seeing a concert — has often been of months also may not be realistic.
viewed as recession-proof. That’s not the case with COVID-19. “There is a chance that the virus
“This is going to have a broad impact on most of the sec- will have spread more widely into
tors in all of the economies of the world, but entertainment will be fall of 2020,” says epidemiologist
particularly hard hit,” says Hal Vogel, a veteran media analyst. Sung. But, she adds, “by the fall, we
“People are scared right now, and they’re not going to want to will have even more knowledge
spend a lot of time in a crowded theater. The big issue in my mind, about how to prevent people from
and it’s not answerable yet, is how long will this go on and will it getting sick and how to respond to
intensify?” people who are dealing with compli-
cations from COVID-19.”

14 FILM FESTIVAL JOURNAL SUMMER 2020